From View From The Top, 23 November 2025
Election Fog, Credit Stress & The New Geography of Capital
Markets don’t collapse because of one bad decision — they normally come about by a series of smaller continued events then by one black swan event which makes all the dotes connect. These smaller events are happening all around us right now and her been for years, causing uncertainty, mispriced risk, and the slow erosion of confidence. Right now, whis week feels like one of those moments in the UK: everyone’s waiting, no one’s moving, and the smart capital is already repositioning or sitting on their hands.
Here’s what I’m seeing from the ground — in London, and across the regions, and increasingly from Southern Europe — where the money, the people, and the energy are beginning to flow.
Here are a few of the current waves hitting the shore…..
1. The UK Election Fog — A Market Waiting for Permission to Move
You can feel it everywhere: the UK is in a holding pattern. Private capital, developers, and lenders are all saying some version of: “Let’s wait and see what the election brings.” It’s been like this for several years but now it feels even more pronounced. Right now it feels like fatigue.
- The UK faces the weakest G7 growth outlook through 2026.
- Housing delivery will practically be zero by end of 2026
- Policy inconsistency has created a trust gap with investors.
- High taxation and regulatory drag are pushing capital offshore.
- Decision-making has slowed to a crawl; planning is even slower.
- The UK faces the weakest G7 growth outlook through 2026.
- Housing delivery will practically be zero by end of 2026
- Policy inconsistency has created a trust gap with investors.
- High taxation and regulatory drag are pushing capital offshore.
- Decision-making has slowed to a crawl; planning is even slower.
This is how markets drift sideways — not because people want to do nothing, but because uncertainty becomes the default strategy. So we wait…..
But these days capital and people move quickly and doesn’t wait…..
2. Development Finance Stress — The Workouts Are Where the Real Cycle Begins
As I’ve mentioned in many previous newsletters, the lending boom of the last five years is meeting reality. Loan books are in various levels of default, costs are up. Values are down. Exit liquidity thin. Refinancing margins blown out. We’re in a work-out phase:
Key pressures are now up across the UK:
- Refinancing gaps of 25–40%
- More quiet receiverships
- Alternative lenders are facing their first real downturn and having to build work out teams
- Loan books written on spreadsheets, not construction knowledge are becoming a real problem
- Developers walking away, going bust or delaying starts
- Refinancing gaps of 25–40%
- More quiet receiverships
- Alternative lenders are facing their first real downturn and having to build work out teams
- Loan books written on spreadsheets, not construction knowledge are becoming a real problem
- Developers walking away, going bust or delaying starts
I’ve said it for the last ten years; The rubber band can only be stretched so far until something snaps; Lending money is easy. Getting it back at par is the hard part.
And that’s where we are.
This part of the next cycle belongs to experienced operators — the builders, doers, and problem-solvers — not the “smart” money or capital allocators. Someone has to roll up their sleeves, unpack the mess, and call out the truth and help allocators get their capital back; even at steep haircuts.
3. The UK Housing Crisis — The Squeezed Middle Has No Options
The UK’s most serious issue is no longer just affordability — it’s structural impossibility.
Who are the “the squeezed middle?” — they are everyone earning £40k–£80k — these are the people that are the backbone to our economy. The people that make the machine work; What they now face is they simply cannot afford to live where they work; these people now face:
- No realistic path to ownership
- A planning system that adds years, not months
- Housebuilders delaying starts, widening the supply gap
- Build-to-Rent focused on high-end schemes, not the middle
- Rents rising faster than wages in most UK cities
- No realistic path to ownership
- A planning system that adds years, not months
- Housebuilders delaying starts, widening the supply gap
- Build-to-Rent focused on high-end schemes, not the middle
- Rents rising faster than wages in most UK cities
For decades, “every man’s home was his castle.” Today, the new default is lifetime renting, but without the dignity, amenities, and scale that other European markets offer.
Look at Spain: They’re building mid-market housing with speed, modern planning, and regional incentives. The UK? We’re debating whether we can even get a local council to return a phone call………
This is the most overlooked — but most scalable — opportunity in the next decade.
4. Where Capital Is Moving — Lifestyle, Safety & Operator Platforms
Capital migrates – and right now, a meaningful wave of UK wealth is heading South. And this is not just wealthy entrepreneurs. I met a 75 year old woman from Oxford at the airport packing up and leaving for Spain after living in the UK her entire life; why? She was just fed up.
Today people and capital are on the move in droves to Spain (Costa del Sol, Sotogrande, Balearics), Portugal, and Cyprus.
We are seeing:
- British and Northern European family offices deploying into residential
- Entrepreneurs relocating for tax, schools, lifestyle, and mobility (school and security are top motivators)
- High-demand for well-run rental housing, hospitality, logistics
- A preference for place-based assets over complex financial products
- A premium on operator-led platforms that provide downside protection
- British and Northern European family offices deploying into residential
- Entrepreneurs relocating for tax, schools, lifestyle, and mobility (school and security are top motivators)
- High-demand for well-run rental housing, hospitality, logistics
- A preference for place-based assets over complex financial products
- A premium on operator-led platforms that provide downside protection
So I believe the real opportunity for capital stuck is to surf to where real demand is taking place…. and the next phase of capital markets belongs to Operators with execution, local knowledge, speed, and true skin in the game who can make that happen.
Not those who just intermediate deals. Those who deliver outcomes.
5. Hard Landing — Generational Wealth Transfer & The New Identity of Capital
Another shift is underway — not just financially, but emotionally.
Over the next decade, £5–7 trillion will move from one generation to the next. And inherited wealth behaves differently: It’s more global. More lifestyle-driven. More conscious of wellbeing, safety, and identity.
And with every transition comes friction.
People cling to what’s familiar — even when it no longer serves them. That’s the Hard Landing moment: The uncomfortable middle between who you were and who you need to become; families and founders who have built will need to transition.
The same forces moving capital today — uncertainty, transition, reinvention — are the same forces individuals face when a chapter ends and another begins.
Hard Landing is the new beginning it’s about change and about giving people: structure, clarity, and emotional stability through major life transitions. Because building a new life, like building a new portfolio, requires letting go of the old blueprint.
Closing Thoughts
The world isn’t slowing down — the UK just feels like it is. Capital, talent, and energy are moving to where life feels more aligned, less constrained, and more future-proof.
This isn’t the collapse of the UK. It’s a rebalancing. And in every rebalancing, there is opportunity for those who can see around the corners.
